Salt Lake County Housing Market: A 2025 Forecast Breakdown

Salt Lake County Housing Market: A 2025 Forecast Breakdown

Posted on March 6, 2025

If you’re keeping an eye on the Salt Lake County housing market, whether you’re a buyer, seller, or just curious about where things are headed, James Wood’s Salt Lake Housing Forecast 2024 2025 from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute offers a clear snapshot of what’s been happening and what’s likely coming next. Commissioned by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors, this report dives into prices, affordability, sales trends, and more. Let’s unpack the highlights and see what 2025 might hold for this high flying market.

Prices: High, Stable, and Slowly Shifting

Salt Lake County’s housing prices are no joke, they’re among the priciest in the U.S. The Salt Lake Tooele metro area clocks in with a median single family home price of $581,800 (Q3 2024), ranking 28th out of 227 metro areas nationwide. Compare that to the national median of $418,700, and you see why Utah’s market stands out. Other Utah metro areas like St. George ($553,400), Provo Orem ($535,600), and Ogden Clearfield ($494,300) aren’t far behind, all landing in the top 34.

But here’s the twist: after a jaw dropping 40% price surge from 2020 to 2022, growth has hit the brakes. In Salt Lake County, single family home prices edged up just 1% from $606,000 in 2022 to $610,000 in 2024. Condos, townhomes, and twin homes actually dipped 1%, sliding from $430,000 to $425,500. Why the slowdown? Rapid growth in the 2010s, soaring land costs, and construction expenses pushed prices sky high, but now we’re seeing a correction, or at least a pause, as the market catches its breath.

Looking ahead to 2025, the forecast predicts a modest uptick: single family homes creeping to $620,000 (a 2% bump) and condos jumping 6% to $450,000. That’s a combined price increase of 3.3%. Not explosive, but steady, assuming mortgage rates don’t throw a curveball.

Affordability: The Elephant in the Room

High prices are one thing; affording them is another. In Q4 2024, a median priced single family home ($610,000) with a 5% down payment and a 6.63% mortgage rate demands a monthly payment of $4,674. That requires an annual income of $186,960, nearly double the county’s median household income of $101,000. Even a condo at $425,525 takes $3,284 monthly, needing $131,360 in income. Ouch.

The “median multiple ratio” (home price divided by median income) paints a grim picture. Salt Lake County’s ratio exceeds 5.1, landing it in the “severely unaffordable” category alongside Washington County. A decade ago, it was moderately unaffordable, times have changed, and not for the better. This affordability crunch explains why sales tanked from 19,041 in 2020 to 12,070 in 2024, a 14 year low reminiscent of the post Great Recession slump.

Buyers are adapting, though. Condos now make up 31% of sales (3,716 units in 2024), up from 17% in 2010. Nearly 40% of condos sold under $400,000, compared to just 6% of single family homes. Still, even a $300,000 condo needs a $90,000 income and $15,000 down, not exactly pocket change.

What’s Driving the 2025 Outlook?

The report points to a few key trends shaping next year:

1. The 2020 2022 Hangover: That 43% price spike when rates were a dreamy 3.1% still looms large. Today’s 6-7% rates and lofty prices will keep tempering sales and price growth for a couple more years.

2. Supply Relief: Homes are sticking around longer, median days on market jumped from 6 in 2021 to 30 in 2024 (still below the 25 year average of 38). Active listings are also up slightly above the five year average, easing price pressure. Surprisingly, low rate homeowners (70% have rates under 5%) aren’t shying away from listing as much as expected.

3. Cooling Demand: Utah’s job growth, once a powerhouse at 2.83% annually, has slowed to 1.7% in 2024, matching the U.S. rate of 1.6%. Net migration dropped from 35,000 to 26,000, slicing housing demand by 3,000 4,000 units. High prices might be partly to blame.

4. Mortgage Rates: Experts (Fannie Mae, MBA, NAHB, Wells Fargo) see rates hovering between 6% and 7% through 2026. No big drops or spikes expected, but uncertainty around Trump era policies could nudge the 10 year treasury yield, and thus mortgage rates, up or down.

The 2025 Prediction

Here’s the bottom line for Salt Lake County:

• Sales: A slight rebound, single family sales up 3% to 8,600 units, condo sales up 8% to 4,000 units.

• Prices: Single family homes to $620,000 (+2%), condos to $450,000 (+6%).

• Vibe: Slower growth, softer demand, and more supply keep things balanced. But if rates climb above 7% or dip below 6%, all bets are off.

What It Means for You

• Buyers: Affordability’s tough, but condos offer a lifeline. Shop below $500,000 (24% of single family homes) or $400,000 (40% of condos) if you’re starting out. Rates won’t save you soon, so lock in when you’re ready.

• Sellers: More listings mean less frenzy, price realistically. The market’s still strong, just not wildfire hot.

• Investors: Steady 3.3% growth isn’t flashy, but it’s reliable. Condos might be the sleeper hit.

Salt Lake County’s market is cooling, not crashing. It’s a breather after years of sprinting. So, good luck out there, here’s to a prosperous 2025!