Why High Building Permits Benefit Utah Buyers

Why High Building Permit Numbers Are a Win for Utah Home Buyers

September 2025

I was chatting with a guy at the gym who asked, “Do you ever think a big housing correction is coming?” It’s a common concern, especially with the Federal Reserve announcing a 0.25% rate cut for September and some speculation about up to four cuts by year-end (though I’m skeptical we’ll see that many). Many folks believe a market crash could happen because the economy feels so unstable right now—with uncertainties around tariffs, how inflation will react, and growing fears of a recession. But here’s the good news: Utah’s rising number of building permits points to opportunity, not a downturn. Let’s dive into why more permits are a win for home buyers—and why a big correction isn’t likely, even amid these economic jitters.

The Economic Backdrop: Why Recession Fears Are Rising

It’s no secret that economic uncertainty is weighing on minds. Recent data shows that tariffs are fueling concerns about higher prices and slower growth. For instance, JPMorgan estimates a 40% probability of a recession in 2025, largely due to the potential negative impact of tariffs on consumer sentiment and spending. A survey found that over three-quarters of Americans are worried about a possible recession, with tariffs already contributing to an "economy of uncertainty." Inflation remains sticky, and experts warn of downside risks from higher tariffs pushing global inflation to 4.2% this year. Reports also indicate that tariffs could trigger a sharp U.S. economic slowdown, with recession chances jumping to 45%.

In Utah specifically, these national trends hit close to home. Governor Cox has instructed state agencies to prepare for a possible recession, citing tariffs as a key risk. Tariffs could lead to "upheaval" in trade policy, elevating risks of recession and stagflation, with higher prices and hiring delays affecting local businesses. Consumer confidence in Utah is down, with polls showing worries about personal finances amid potential economic disruption from tariffs and persistent inflation. Reports highlight uncertainty in Utah's 2025 outlook, driven by factors like tariffs and "continued sticky inflation."

These fears are valid, but they don’t spell doom for the housing market. In fact, the data on building permits suggests builders are pushing forward, which could help buffer against these risks.

Building Permits: The Pulse of Future Supply

Building permits are the green light for new construction, authorizing residential units like single-family homes, townhomes, or apartments. In Utah, where demand has long outpaced supply, these permits are key to balancing the market.

According to recent reports, Utah issued permits for 21,922 residential units in 2024. For 2025, projections estimate around 23,000 units—a 5% increase. Year-to-date data (through July 2025) shows 9,911 units already authorized from March to July, putting us on track to meet or exceed that forecast. Cities like Eagle Mountain, Saratoga Springs, and Lehi are driving this growth, with nearly 18% of last year’s permits concentrated there.

So, why does this matter to you as a buyer? Let’s break it down.

Why More Permits Are Good News for Buyers—Even in Uncertain Times

The fear of a recession often stems from economic instability, like the unpredictable effects of tariffs on inflation and growth. But Utah’s high permit numbers tell a resilient story. Here’s why they’re a game-changer for you:

1. More Homes, Less Frenzy: Increased permits mean more homes will hit the market over the next 6-18 months. This extra inventory helps cool the intense bidding wars we’ve seen in recent years. Instead of prices skyrocketing (or crashing wildly), the added supply can stabilize or even soften prices in some areas, giving you more options and better negotiating power—especially if economic slowdowns make sellers more flexible.
   
   

2. Ready for Rate Shifts and Economic Bumps: The Fed’s rate cut (and any future ones, though I doubt we’ll see four this year) will likely make mortgages more affordable, bringing more buyers out. But with broader uncertainties like tariffs potentially bumping up inflation, having more permits ensures Utah’s market can absorb demand without overheating. In a slowdown, this supply acts as a safety net, potentially leading to better deals for buyers.
   
   

3. A Sign of Market Strength: Despite national worries, Utah’s economy is thriving, with job growth in tech, healthcare, and beyond fueling population increases. High permit activity shows builders are confident, investing in long-term growth to match. This steady approach reduces the risk of a boom-bust cycle, making a dramatic housing correction unlikely even if broader recession risks materialize.
   
   

No Crash on the Horizon

If you’re holding out for a big market crash to snag a deal, you might be waiting a while. Utah’s housing shortage, combined with strong local fundamentals and proactive construction (thanks to those permits!), points to a market that’s stabilizing, not collapsing. More inventory means you’ll have room to find the right home at a fair price, especially as rates ease and economic uncertainties play out.

Your Next Steps

With rising permit numbers and upcoming rate cuts, now’s a great time to explore your options—before any potential economic shifts change the landscape. Whether you’re a first-time buyer or looking to upgrade, I’m here to help you navigate the market. Reach out for a personalized look at local listings, comps, or strategies to make your move.